Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe43e9dc83c72471606c11e1fddc20042f5b9e015803cf0aebdc3adabc776a7ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0216…d434backed Yes | 9c | 75,000$6,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,975 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…1b4fbacked Yes | 1c | 17,070$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 67 | 1.5%1 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed Yes | 1c | 1,697$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9f…3a9ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 677.47$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 10c | 544.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 13c | 466.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.23 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 19c | 400$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 364.58$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 7c | 334.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 34c | 324$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.78 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…34bdbacked Yes | 16c | 307.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 285.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 231.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 19c | 229.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 226.25$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 189.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 176.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked No | 65c | 171.37$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 167.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 151.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…636dbacked Yes | 39c | 150.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8073…25febacked Yes | 18c | 125.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 65c | 119.09$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 13c | 118.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…2e82backed Yes | 28c | 107.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 37c | 101.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 18c | 99.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 98.17$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 24c | 95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 43c | 87.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 21c | 84.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed Yes | 14c | 84.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 16c | 75.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 15c | 75.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 58c | 65.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 24c | 61.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 50.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 40c | 50.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 63c | 46.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 64c | 46.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 58c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 63c | 40.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 35c | 40.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 36c | 34.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 63c | 32.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…8c3ebacked No | 68c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x553e…e317backed Yes | 34c | 29.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…44bbbacked No | 69c | 29.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 69c | 29.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…1b6ebacked No | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 63c | 24.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x649e…fd6abacked No | 58c | 22.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…f159backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 66c | 21.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 20.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 73c | 16.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 86°F or higher on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.