South American Leagues · resolved market
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Unión: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa25e62b7b55f03c08a3231bb035f3eb23bf5bef4c7f8b71065d30c62cc3d9ce1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 26c | 4,178$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.87 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 37c | 3,913$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.81 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 63c | 3,750$2,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.46 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 2,195$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.04 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 64c | 1,181$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.03 | 213 | 66.7%142 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 34c | 826.52$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.86 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 75c | 760$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 63c | 738$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.82 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 65c | 649.23$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.23 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 10c | 420.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 36c | 275$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 63c | 273.1$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.05 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 37c | 178.21$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 10c | 164.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 62c | 91.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 38c | 78.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 77c | 73.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 77c | 73.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Over | 31c | 69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 36c | 64.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 68 | 77.9%53 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 37c | 48.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…1ca6backed Under | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 37c | 33.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 64c | 25.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 80c | 13.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 126 | 62.7%79 W · 47 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Unión: O/U 2.5this page
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Unión: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Unión: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Unión: CA Unión 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Unión: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Unión: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Unión: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Unión: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-1.5)CA Unión won
- Spread: CA Unión (-1.5)CA San Lorenzo de Almagro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.