World Politics · resolved market
Will the Social Democrats’ Popular Vote Margin of Victory in the 2026 Denmark Parliamentary Election be between 10% and 15%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2811473cd094bc5d6dc52b56e8c31b8ee4c0bf1140c88c2b7f741d6c0baff72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,446 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 66c | 3,476$2,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.4 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 34c | 2,285$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.88 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 21c | 1,734$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.86 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…a2debacked No | 79c | 1,319$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 22c | 729.29$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.83 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed Yes | 19c | 613$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.53 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…c454backed No | 79c | 415$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 47c | 169.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbd…17c9backed No | 77c | 166$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed Yes | 23c | 166$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 11c | 144$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…b529backed Yes | 66c | 116.01$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 45c | 93.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 45c | 56.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…e6e8backed No | 77c | 51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 48.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 76c | 48.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 49c | 44.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 33c | 44.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 77c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0d…762bbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…76bdbacked No | 65c | 30.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Social Democrats’ Popular Vote Margin of Victory in the 2026 Denmark Parliamentary Election be between 10% and 15%?this page
- Will the Social Democrats’ Popular Vote Margin of Victory in the 2026 Denmark Parliamentary Election be between 5% and 10%?No won
- Will the Social Democrats’ Popular Vote Margin of Victory in the 2026 Denmark Parliamentary Election be less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.