College Football · resolved market
Will Northwestern beat Duke?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa281afeee2bf579bea493602cca6f2536e51e682687fbcae09925c028d99636e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dukeof Northwestern, Duke
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Duke | 31c | 11,875$3,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,200.46 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Northwestern | 71c | 11,617$8,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,278.54 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Northwestern | 1c | 3,499$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Duke | 40c | 2,572$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…8b82backed Northwestern | 72c | 460$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Northwestern | 52c | 208.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Duke | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Northwestern | 75c | 178.26$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.7 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Northwestern | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Northwestern | 52c | 52.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb866…36d4backed Northwestern | 75c | 47.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94c3…1545backed Northwestern | 75c | 42.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcb…a83bbacked Duke | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Duke | 50c | 26.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.