Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa28d0bde87c0bd11339ae6102a75a68b0f307fb97b17ff328a9029cb562455b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 1c | 5,077$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,713$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.03 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 4,296$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 2c | 3,951$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 4c | 2,217$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 5c | 1,140$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 12c | 774.08$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 16c | 547.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 447$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 10c | 317.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed Yes | 9c | 316.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 39c | 259.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 5c | 242.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 14c | 218.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 16c | 209$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 14c | 201.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521f…80cdbacked No | 76c | 201.38$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 9c | 198.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 8c | 180$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 12c | 178.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 30c | 164.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…12e9backed Yes | 13c | 130.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 16c | 121.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 120.9$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 11c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 17c | 88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 14c | 78.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 62c | 78.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 48c | 71.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 17c | 71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 70.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a90…b9e4backed Yes | 16c | 65.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 24c | 56.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked Yes | 40c | 32.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 40c | 25.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 73c | 20.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5686…690abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.