Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42bff4c70236a9b9f53a13287937050f797b8f3c7a3d35f27f274ab21af7038a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 13c | 494.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 80c | 370.74$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 351.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,868 | 37.7%705 W · 1,163 L | +282.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 331.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 255.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.02 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed No | 73c | 205.52$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 159.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.38 | 1,083 | 65.6%710 W · 373 L | -16.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 155.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…add8backed No | 78c | 128.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 25c | 117.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.45 | 1,613 | 23.9%385 W · 1,228 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 110.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 110.4$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.79 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 109.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 28c | 105.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 183 | 40.4%74 W · 109 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 17c | 105$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 125 | 32%40 W · 85 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 103.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3,046 | 33.5%1,021 W · 2,025 L | +12.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 57c | 89.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 63c | 89.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 85.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.81 | 1,327 | 34.1%452 W · 875 L | +46.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 72.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 66.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 2,155 | 59.6%1,285 W · 870 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f72…0b9bbacked Yes | 23c | 66.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 66.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 56.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…d757backed Yes | 60c | 50.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.38per pick | 51cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 24c | 49.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 760 | 26.7%203 W · 557 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 27c | 49.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 374 | 47.6%178 W · 196 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked Yes | 24c | 43.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 2,184 | 74.2%1,621 W · 563 L | +23.5wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 79c | 34.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 321 | 68.2%219 W · 102 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 677 | 58.5%396 W · 281 L | +50.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 80c | 32.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 67c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 45c | 29.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 901 | 45.7%412 W · 489 L | -29.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,237 | 49.3%1,102 W · 1,135 L | -10.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 59c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 218 | 60.1%131 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 76c | 24.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,253 | 58.2%729 W · 524 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,803 | 63.2%1,140 W · 663 L | -8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,919 | 62.8%1,205 W · 714 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 19.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 75c | 15.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 888 | 55.7%495 W · 393 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.