Tennis · resolved market
Japan Women's Open: Tereza Valentova vs Olga Danilovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa29b7aae01f9e9133d242fa32caf471b24c421c1ac2d61a540d2ce2939f4438d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Valentovaof Valentova, Danilovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3868…5683backed Valentova | 52c | 3,000$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Danilovic | 38c | 2,862$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.3 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Valentova | 70c | 1,250$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Danilovic | 45c | 1,003$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.44 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8d…037abacked Danilovic | 32c | 732.07$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Valentova | 65c | 689.57$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.34 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Danilovic | 33c | 629.15$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.35 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Valentova | 72c | 539.94$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.14 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Valentova | 76c | 527.6$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.94 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Danilovic | 35c | 513$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Danilovic | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Danilovic | 30c | 466.19$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Valentova | 56c | 432.99$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.12 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Danilovic | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Danilovic | 34c | 352.91$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Valentova | 61c | 343.73$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.64 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Danilovic | 29c | 289.64$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.44 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Valentova | 72c | 260$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Valentova | 73c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Danilovic | 23c | 175$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Valentova | 67c | 150.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Danilovic | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Danilovic | 44c | 100.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Valentova | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3064…8943backed Danilovic | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2d…82f1backed Danilovic | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…5787backed Danilovic | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Valentova | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Danilovic | 27c | 55.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Danilovic | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Danilovic | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Danilovic | 49c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Valentova | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.