San Francisco Dons vs. Oregon State Beavers

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa29e6bd56a57ae9f0747d6fc3385d045cb46d5960eb40baeace5a09e15d2dac6

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Oregon State Beaversof San Francisco Dons, Oregon State Beavers
Resolved: Mar 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $44,741

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,741 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xada5…db70backed Oregon State Beavers	39c	4,221$1,641 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,579.3	379	47.8%181 W · 198 L	-26.2wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed San Francisco Dons	28c	4,147$1,165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,164.95	1,074	43.3%465 W · 609 L	+20.0wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked San Francisco Dons	61c	3,333$2,033 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,033.13	2,687	48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Oregon State Beavers	64c	2,091$1,336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$754.52	4,848	52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L	+139.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked San Francisco Dons	64c	1,717$1,101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,101.06	5,946	49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L	+163.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed Oregon State Beavers	36c	1,379$496 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$883.1	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Oregon State Beavers	30c	1,114$338 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$776.37	1,983	26.4%523 W · 1,460 L	-55.5wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed Oregon State Beavers	38c	999.98$380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$619.99	215	49.3%106 W · 109 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcede…6736backed San Francisco Dons	62c	773.33$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.61	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-7.5wins	-0.33per pick	54cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	33-0.16 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed San Francisco Dons	62c	654.56$406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405.83	195	54.9%107 W · 88 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa081…77e6backed Oregon State Beavers	38c	553.14$209 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$343.88	94	54.3%51 W · 43 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked San Francisco Dons	61c	541.79$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.49	2,896	50%1,448 W · 1,448 L	+71.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed San Francisco Dons	46c	517.07$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.87	45	51.1%23 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked San Francisco Dons	43c	465.11$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.75	771	42.3%326 W · 445 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Oregon State Beavers	28c	425.55$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$306.71	429	34.3%147 W · 282 L	+21.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x553b…cc8cbacked San Francisco Dons	25c	399.13$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed San Francisco Dons	64c	389.47$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.68	3,380	49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L	+30.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked San Francisco Dons	52c	373.98$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.08	269	45.7%123 W · 146 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b03…71babacked Oregon State Beavers	34c	351.33$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231.03	141	51.1%72 W · 69 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb691…b39dbacked Oregon State Beavers	45c	338.57$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.86	57	63.2%36 W · 21 L	+7.1wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Oregon State Beavers	59c	316.67$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.04	1,296	45.1%584 W · 712 L	-23.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed San Francisco Dons	53c	254.86$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.48	1,003	55.3%555 W · 448 L	+46.5wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed San Francisco Dons	37c	247.99$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.7	3,684	42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L	+32.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed San Francisco Dons	42c	238.79$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.15	150	55.3%83 W · 67 L	+6.3wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Oregon State Beavers	39c	198.33$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.98	2,194	33.4%733 W · 1,461 L	+19.2wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Oregon State Beavers	73c	196.58$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.59	253	37.5%95 W · 158 L	-5.3wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed San Francisco Dons	28c	166.93$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.32	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed San Francisco Dons	36c	160.04$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.42	1,249	16.4%205 W · 1,044 L	-189.4wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed San Francisco Dons	62c	152.51$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.41	1,446	43.4%627 W · 819 L	+10.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed San Francisco Dons	42c	150.3$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.82	195	22.1%43 W · 152 L	-36.3wins	-0.19per pick	41cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked San Francisco Dons	62c	150$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	334	45.8%153 W · 181 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed San Francisco Dons	55c	144.13$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.79	932	47.3%441 W · 491 L	-22.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9e…0db0backed Oregon State Beavers	56c	141.08$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.77	39	69.2%27 W · 12 L	+5.8wins	+0.15per pick	54cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Oregon State Beavers	77c	124.31$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.13	576	55%317 W · 259 L	+17.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Oregon State Beavers	40c	123.95$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.37	338	55%186 W · 152 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked San Francisco Dons	39c	122.44$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.08	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4f…6dddbacked Oregon State Beavers	39c	115.03$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.17	44	40.9%18 W · 26 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed San Francisco Dons	35c	111.16$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.59	2,003	53.7%1,076 W · 927 L	+101.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf43c…d7c3backed San Francisco Dons	61c	100$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	491	57.2%281 W · 210 L	+18.9wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed San Francisco Dons	75c	90.42$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.01	2,012	50%1,006 W · 1,006 L	+22.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Oregon State Beavers	60c	90.14$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.05	249	51.8%129 W · 120 L	+19.1wins	+0.08per pick	44cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5261…3ddbbacked San Francisco Dons	44c	84.27$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.93	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Oregon State Beavers	62c	61$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.95	144	50%72 W · 72 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad13…d3abbacked San Francisco Dons	44c	57.39$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.25	202	34.2%69 W · 133 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked San Francisco Dons	74c	49.66$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.75	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	-5.7wins	-0.16per pick	59cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0xe7e0…a433backed Oregon State Beavers	49c	45.58$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.24	152	46.7%71 W · 81 L	-8.3wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Oregon State Beavers	38c	43.64$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.06	258	37.6%97 W · 161 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5545…4fc5backed Oregon State Beavers	79c	37.53$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.7	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	72cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cd9…a643backed Oregon State Beavers	51c	32.96$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.26	162	55.6%90 W · 72 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked San Francisco Dons	33c	32.26$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.65	1,531	50.1%767 W · 764 L	+34.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfda1…454fbacked San Francisco Dons	52c	30.84$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.04	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-2.7wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5dd3…0d61backed San Francisco Dons	77c	29.62$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.81	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	-6.6wins	-0.15per pick	59cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked San Francisco Dons	60c	22.35$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.41	258	29.5%76 W · 182 L	-4.9wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd08…84b0backed San Francisco Dons	70c	21.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.89	299	54.2%162 W · 137 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6436…aa37backed San Francisco Dons	52c	20.56$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.69	54	33.3%18 W · 36 L	-5.9wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb28a…ba10backed San Francisco Dons	52c	20.56$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.69	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x784f…7593backed San Francisco Dons	52c	20.56$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.69	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e7…80d0backed San Francisco Dons	52c	20.56$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.69	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c42…4a3dbacked San Francisco Dons	59c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.28per pick	62cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dca…a7acbacked Oregon State Beavers	78c	19.88$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.37	252	54.8%138 W · 114 L	-15.7wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6275…4e76backed Oregon State Beavers	58c	19.82$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.42	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.59per pick	41cpaid	+195.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Oregon State Beavers	78c	19.55$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.3	558	40.3%225 W · 333 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Oregon State Beavers	59c	19.27$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.99	848	54.5%462 W · 386 L	+32.8wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

San Francisco Dons vs. Oregon State Beaversthis page
San Francisco Dons vs. Oregon State Beavers: O/U 142.5Over won
San Francisco Dons vs. Oregon State Beavers: O/U 143.5Over won
San Francisco Dons vs. Oregon State Beavers: O/U 144.5Over won
San Francisco Dons vs. Oregon State Beavers: O/U 145.5Over won
Spread: San Francisco Dons (-3.5)Oregon State Beavers won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

San Francisco Dons vs. Oregon State Beavers

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event