Bundesliga · resolved market
Hamburger SV vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa29fb994876370169c70bf094d290b26d7908ac00dec740a4cc9f46d58e5e46f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 41c | 759.86$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.13 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 40c | 471.03$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.35 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 61c | 116.69$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…9732backed Yes | 61c | 104.06$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 44c | 89.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 59c | 82.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 57c | 80.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 54c | 74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Yes | 76c | 64.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 32c | 58.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…434dbacked Yes | 61c | 49.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes | 61c | 48.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 39c | 40.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 57c | 40.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6078…dbaebacked Yes | 61c | 40.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…b00cbacked Yes | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed No | 48c | 32.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Yes | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8761…5619backed Yes | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked Yes | 61c | 24.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Yes | 67c | 19.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburger SV vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Hamburger SV vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)FC Augsburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.