Bundesliga · resolved market
Hamburger SV vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7509ac2aaed1fec9220e2b9df91a6f79c961e9dd4beaebf56158b9d21d3e558
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 1,908$1,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.33 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fa…f6dfbacked Over | 27c | 1,280$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 69c | 1,269$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.29 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 1,082$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.38 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 73c | 406.19$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.68 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Over | 32c | 374.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 30c | 231.72$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.03 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 34c | 211.85$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 66c | 207.45$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 65c | 200$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 67c | 179.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Under | 67c | 179.04$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 26c | 172.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Under | 58c | 132.51$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Under | 59c | 104.89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 43c | 88.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 43c | 88.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1455backed Under | 68c | 77.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 74c | 76.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 43c | 75.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…abcbbacked Under | 58c | 67.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 31c | 56.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…a3bdbacked Over | 32c | 47.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 78c | 47.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…adc4backed Over | 34c | 38.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 33c | 33.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 68c | 15.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d92…616ebacked Under | 69c | 15.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a63…fe88backed Under | 79c | 14.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburger SV vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5this page
- Hamburger SV vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hamburger SV vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)FC Augsburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.