College Football · resolved market
Spread: Illinois (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2a2539114df5db931c9ed3f1062f1a616ad821083c5d49354b2bcf8721547d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinoisof Illinois, Rutgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Illinois | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Rutgers | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Illinois | 53c | 2,766$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Rutgers | 49c | 2,400$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Rutgers | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Illinois | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Rutgers | 47c | 641.46$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.44 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Illinois | 54c | 231.48$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Illinois | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Illinois | 52c | 193$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rutgers | 48c | 190.75$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rutgers | 46c | 131.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…b7febacked Rutgers | 47c | 61.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…202bbacked Illinois | 53c | 61.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Illinois | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Rutgers | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…7b4fbacked Illinois | 53c | 51.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ec…57d6backed Rutgers | 47c | 51.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Illinois | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Illinois (-12.5)this page
- O/U 62.5Under won
- Rutgers vs. IllinoisIllinois won
- Spread: Illinois (-13.5)Illinois won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.