Fifa International · resolved market
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2cfdf97a05d446aff0358f26c0ba0a7c390dcdf9bad74d66c71b51b80693d55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37ae…1002backed Yes | 5c | 7,235$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.66 | 249 | 17.7%44 W · 205 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…1695backed Yes | 6c | 2,503$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 372 | 23.9%89 W · 283 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51cf…106cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d9…d57bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abf…eb59backed Yes | 6c | 1,179$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5c…d8debacked Yes | 6c | 1,020$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…5af0backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 309 | 28.8%89 W · 220 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…4a74backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 173 | 22.5%39 W · 134 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…b276backed Yes | 6c | 769.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…d036backed Yes | 7c | 520$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd72…5a5bbacked Yes | 5c | 377.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…602dbacked Yes | 6c | 326.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…9294backed Yes | 6c | 316.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 494 | 26.7%132 W · 362 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 5c | 308.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0409…a2febacked Yes | 7c | 270.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…3ec8backed Yes | 6c | 268.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 255 | 32.9%84 W · 171 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed Yes | 6c | 183.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccbb…3bedbacked Yes | 11c | 104.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 81 | 16%13 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb4…1eb1backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…a144backed Yes | 23c | 48.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lionel Messi: 3+ goalsthis page
- Julián Álvarez: 2+ shotsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsYes won
- Lionel Messi: 2+ goalsYes won
- Lionel Messi: 5+ shotsYes won
- Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assistsNo won
- Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goalsNo won
- Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goalsNo won
- Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ assistsNo won
- Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ goalsNo won
- Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ shotsNo won
- Thiago Almada: 1+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.