Fifa International · resolved market
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a2facd41b6ea15b8ea8274e879ab61fe29ee3601f91d748b2e861ed5ec21c8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 78c | 7,873$6,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.01 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43bb…26dbbacked Yes | 20c | 4,127$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.49 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +10.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 60c | 1,382$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.81 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…f99bbacked Yes | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 10c | 1,175$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 1,601 | 47.8%765 W · 836 L | +51.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15c2…345abacked Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.91 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 61c | 799.9$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.96 | 311 | 71.4%222 W · 89 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 14c | 655.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf869…e2b4backed Yes | 19c | 278.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…2bf0backed Yes | 39c | 258.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 221 | 22.2%49 W · 172 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a51…05adbacked No | 68c | 219.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 70c | 215.78$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 144 | 27.8%40 W · 104 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…85b9backed Yes | 15c | 179.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a18…edebbacked Yes | 28c | 166.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 17c | 149.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 319 | 20.1%64 W · 255 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed No | 67c | 148$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 379 | 71.2%270 W · 109 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x004c…ab0cbacked Yes | 40c | 132.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 111 | 70.3%78 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Yes | 38c | 129.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 608 | 21.9%133 W · 475 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…dc83backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 160 | 16.3%26 W · 134 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1a…ba1ebacked Yes | 31c | 106.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 343 | 57.7%198 W · 145 L | +26.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 707 | 50.1%354 W · 353 L | +25.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf511…bfe4backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 145 | 79.3%115 W · 30 L | +17.0wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed No | 63c | 99.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 572 | 52.4%300 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…6869backed Yes | 39c | 95.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…f104backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbd…4476backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 212 | 50.9%108 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f2…1652backed Yes | 39c | 76.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 130 | 37.7%49 W · 81 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…0fc0backed No | 68c | 73.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 321 | 45.5%146 W · 175 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 28c | 72.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,388 | 15.1%210 W · 1,178 L | -16.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…a780backed Yes | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 208 | 25%52 W · 156 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 62c | 69.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…9024backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…adc3backed Yes | 38c | 65.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…0d66backed Yes | 38c | 51.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…11d1backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 53.2%84 W · 74 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…7483backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4082…2350backed Yes | 39c | 50.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…80bfbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6e…a6b6backed Yes | 26c | 46.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 44c | 45.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 373 | 23.1%86 W · 287 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 239 | 51.9%124 W · 115 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…8fd8backed Yes | 33c | 39.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 141 | 16.3%23 W · 118 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 61c | 32.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 1,306 | 44.7%584 W · 722 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 81 | 70.4%57 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a3…9ac2backed Yes | 40c | 26.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 294 | 63.3%186 W · 108 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed No | 63c | 23.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 660 | 56.8%375 W · 285 L | +34.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 65c | 23.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 215 | 65.1%140 W · 75 L | +16.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goalsthis page
- Julián Álvarez: 2+ shotsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsYes won
- Lionel Messi: 2+ goalsYes won
- Lionel Messi: 3+ goalsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 5+ shotsYes won
- Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assistsNo won
- Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goalsNo won
- Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goalsNo won
- Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ assistsNo won
- Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ goalsNo won
- Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ shotsNo won
- Thiago Almada: 1+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.