College Football · resolved market
Spread: Memphis (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2d859d57b3231fc7f9cc12ab63bc52b6ded8a3aea8cc306e3a140cf25cb6996
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tulaneof Memphis, Tulane
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $445,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $447,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $445,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x423e…77e9backed Memphis | 52c | 262,073$135,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135,263.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Tulane | 49c | 150,991$73,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77,008.77 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Tulane | 49c | 69,448$33,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,736.33 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Memphis | 50c | 54,891$27,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,375.3 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Tulane | 50c | 54,861$27,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,208.91 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Tulane | 55c | 39,197$21,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,803.85 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Tulane | 48c | 19,918$9,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,407.63 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Tulane | 52c | 17,000$8,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,160 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Tulane | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Memphis | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Tulane | 50c | 8,680$4,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,317.26 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Memphis | 48c | 6,000$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,879.99 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Memphis | 50c | 4,022$2,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,007.4 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Memphis | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…34dbbacked Tulane | 51c | 977.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.22 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Tulane | 51c | 810$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.9 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed Memphis | 49c | 800$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Tulane | 48c | 729$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.08 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Tulane | 47c | 692.5$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.73 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Memphis | 50c | 618.78$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.39 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Tulane | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Tulane | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b6…d93bbacked Tulane | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Memphis | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Tulane | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Tulane | 3c | 396$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.12 | 86 | 29.1%25 W · 61 L | +15.2wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +361.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Tulane | 51c | 341.67$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.42 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Tulane | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Tulane | 54c | 300$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Tulane | 54c | 276$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.96 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…a062backed Tulane | 48c | 264$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed Memphis | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Tulane | 48c | 200$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Tulane | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Tulane | 48c | 198.04$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.48 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa648…2cadbacked Tulane | 53c | 174.98$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Tulane | 53c | 167.58$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.59 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Tulane | 51c | 160$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Tulane | 54c | 148.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed Tulane | 52c | 125$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Tulane | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Tulane | 52c | 106$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…274ebacked Tulane | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Memphis | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…9bd7backed Tulane | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Tulane | 48c | 96.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Memphis | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc47d…feeebacked Tulane | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Memphis | 48c | 79.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…d153backed Tulane | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Memphis | 47c | 67.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Tulane | 53c | 56.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Tulane | 47c | 50.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Memphis | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Memphis | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfd…bcaabacked Memphis | 52c | 43.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7101…cf3dbacked Memphis | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Tulane | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…f838backed Tulane | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa319…bfc1backed Memphis | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed57…e0a0backed Tulane | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Tulane | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6de…3db6backed Tulane | 49c | 30.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1806…a29bbacked Tulane | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4173…fb7bbacked Memphis | 49c | 24.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…0f52backed Memphis | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Tulane | 49c | 23.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…0550backed Memphis | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Memphis (-3.5)this page
- O/U 55.5Over won
- Spread: Memphis (-4.5)Tulane won
- Spread: Memphis (-6.5)Tulane won
- Tulane vs. MemphisTulane won
- Tulane vs. Memphis: O/U 53.5Over won
- Tulane vs. Memphis: O/U 54.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.