Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2dd026f42bbc07ade387b0d1f88dccc859d6ef870295d4c0e4d9c57c4b40c56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 926.12$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 3c | 413.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 5c | 390.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.85 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 7c | 377.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 3c | 340.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.06 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed Yes | 4c | 332.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.01 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 6c | 321.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 308.67$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 5c | 222.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.62 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 213.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 7c | 211.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.34 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 43c | 202.62$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.24 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 6c | 178.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.56 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 54c | 175.29$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 66c | 153.06$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 77c | 142.36$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 40c | 142.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 9c | 108.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.65 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 74c | 98.86$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 57c | 85.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 71c | 63.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 57.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 73c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 70c | 46.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 27.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 67c | 26.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 53c | 25.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 53c | 25.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…b08bbacked No | 73c | 15.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…59f2backed No | 73c | 14.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 73cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.