Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x090ca182ee2cce3d4f44b33b2792e3a21d7c1447f234a243e4357ff6529dda14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 3c | 1,953$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed No | 65c | 1,015$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.71 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 1,011$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 2c | 700.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 38c | 427.98$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.43 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 7c | 407.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 79c | 360.65$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.66 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 27c | 360.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 4c | 251.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 251$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 240.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 5c | 222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 9c | 219.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 219.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed Yes | 5c | 218.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 204.95$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 10c | 201.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 26c | 190.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.19 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 21c | 180.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 149.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 20c | 139.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 28c | 135.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.84 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 125.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 13c | 117.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 32c | 109.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 20c | 104$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.97 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 49c | 101.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed No | 41c | 66.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 45c | 66.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 65.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…701abacked No | 42c | 62.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 59c | 62.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed Yes | 34c | 59.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 49c | 58.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 19c | 58.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…59f2backed Yes | 66c | 58.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 73cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 34c | 56.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 35c | 53.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 28c | 53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe723…831cbacked Yes | 75c | 51.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed No | 42c | 51.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 66c | 47.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed No | 60c | 43.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 74c | 39.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 37c | 38.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 50c | 36.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 44c | 33.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked No | 38c | 29.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 78c | 28.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 27.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…76b9backed Yes | 77c | 25.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 71c | 24.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24d…4e75backed Yes | 80c | 24.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed Yes | 43c | 23.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a3…902dbacked Yes | 68c | 23.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5522…c20bbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe14…d255backed Yes | 74c | 18.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a6b4backed Yes | 79c | 17.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 76c | 16.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 80c | 15.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 79c | 15.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bb…0e9fbacked Yes | 77c | 15.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed Yes | 75c | 14.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked Yes | 79c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked Yes | 75c | 13.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.