Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x666a051315f1a9dd8c3189d94109bbf1d6d07ee92f9a02e548cb595eac43ad06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8130…5a50backed No | 72c | 978.18$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 30c | 859.6$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.61 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 19c | 489.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 46c | 368.13$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.15 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 65c | 310$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.47 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 26c | 301.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 18c | 280.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 17c | 259.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 44c | 234.94$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.09 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 222.71$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 205$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 54c | 178$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.95 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 174.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 171.75$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 20c | 151.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 142$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 71c | 139.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 139.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 134$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 19c | 125.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 116.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 103.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 102$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 18c | 101.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 13c | 99.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 96.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 26c | 90.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 58c | 77.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 39c | 72.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 15c | 71.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 29c | 68.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 39c | 65.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 54c | 59.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 53.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 52.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 26c | 52.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84e7…73c4backed Yes | 34c | 51.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…362abacked Yes | 21c | 50.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 22c | 50.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 27c | 42.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 44c | 34.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 38c | 33.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 72c | 30.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 73c | 29.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 41c | 29.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 41c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 77c | 24.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 79c | 24.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 57c | 20.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 79c | 15.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…a03fbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 79c | 12.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.