Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb472fd15641ad873769f15fe4e2fb1c7ee1f6905b44e3b66f8838bc3cbd0e9f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 24c | 1,125$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.91 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 34c | 788.46$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.07 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 77c | 415.01$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 37c | 321.43$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.68 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 316$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 286.33$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 63c | 284.36$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.13 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 256.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 248.58$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 7c | 218.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 26c | 204.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 186.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 29c | 170.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 160.52$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 156.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 35c | 143.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 37c | 133.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 121.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 119.4$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 75c | 107$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 73c | 106.69$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 97.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 94.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 71c | 91.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 86.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 53c | 86.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 67c | 81.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 42c | 80.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 42c | 70.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 42c | 69.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked No | 71c | 63.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 42c | 59.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 59.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24d…4e75backed No | 52c | 57.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 63c | 56.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 55.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 38c | 52.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b2…697cbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 51.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 76c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ad…66a6backed Yes | 35c | 50.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 42c | 47.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 31c | 46.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 66c | 46.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 35c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a3…902dbacked Yes | 45c | 36.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 39c | 35.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 68c | 35.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 34c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ee…e90bbacked No | 77c | 32.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f6fbbacked Yes | 69c | 32.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 65c | 31.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 49c | 31.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 56c | 30.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 39c | 29.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 66c | 28.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 28.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked No | 50c | 27.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 65c | 27.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 43c | 27.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed No | 49c | 27.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 45c | 25.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 65c | 25.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 66c | 24.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked No | 64c | 24.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 52c | 22.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 59c | 21.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 21.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 68c | 19.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b22…6f69backed No | 73c | 18.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 63c | 16.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.