Olympics · resolved market
Spread: USA (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2ec4898ef52f5c96a49759d544f217acff61cfac1909482539ecbd0c01f97ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- USAof USA, Denmark
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Denmark | 9c | 2,686$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.78 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Denmark | 9c | 2,260$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.81 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Denmark | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Denmark | 11c | 1,232$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed USA | 62c | 995.5$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b9…0fc9backed Denmark | 10c | 780$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Denmark | 37c | 673.42$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Denmark | 34c | 587.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04fd…8175backed Denmark | 9c | 365.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa311…a4ebbacked USA | 69c | 362$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Denmark | 10c | 267.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Denmark | 30c | 250$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0e…9f75backed USA | 69c | 144.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Denmark | 38c | 90.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked USA | 75c | 72.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: USA (-1.5)this page
- Men's Group C - USA vs. DenmarkUSA won
- USA vs. Denmark: O/U 5.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.