Olympics · resolved market
USA vs. Denmark: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa47af6a28c17eee62bf18f2cf61227022a72766006c86d6c47bbdf0c5610ab5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 33c | 2,458$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.99 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Over | 71c | 1,362$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…7f1dbacked Over | 68c | 799.98$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…6025backed Over | 71c | 723.1$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 31c | 692.25$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.3 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…2f68backed Under | 32c | 579.39$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 29c | 499.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Under | 17c | 317.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 67c | 201.5$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed Over | 71c | 154.26$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Under | 29c | 151.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…54cebacked Over | 70c | 150.24$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Over | 70c | 142.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Over | 70c | 99.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Over | 70c | 71.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 38c | 55.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa80a…caa4backed Over | 70c | 40.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed Under | 38c | 37.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 71c | 33.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf55…92a2backed Over | 80c | 26.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…ddafbacked Over | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 67c | 19.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…8d81backed Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- USA vs. Denmark: O/U 5.5this page
- Men's Group C - USA vs. DenmarkUSA won
- Spread: USA (-1.5)USA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.