Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3040763b92d6f7ee8eccdee1d8aea213a58f8b3c16c86d061871fb7791d2213
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 1,104$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.67 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 412.3$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.34 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 369.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 3c | 322.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0117…fd3bbacked No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 192$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 185$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 15c | 166$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 159.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed No | 72c | 149.24$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 32c | 141.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 135.82$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 131.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 129.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 105$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 102.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 35c | 98.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 88.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 82.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 56c | 81.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 34c | 69.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e1…f883backed Yes | 18c | 62.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 61.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 38c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 40c | 37.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 37.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 61c | 32.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 39c | 32.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 32.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 62c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 62c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 19.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 78c | 16.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 13.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.