NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa31faf356b31117ab953e672f6dc664b34246a38482c388d0a5c3bae53ae790d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Under | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 7,612$3,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,775.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 50c | 6,792$3,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,396 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa216…179bbacked Over | 50c | 3,756$1,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.03 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 51c | 3,383$1,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,647.3 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927a…4eaebacked Over | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Over | 50c | 1,686$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 50c | 1,512$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.66 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 1,367$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.56 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 1,256$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.99 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…cc97backed Under | 51c | 1,202$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.67 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 50c | 666.5$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.25 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Over | 50c | 666$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 494.12$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.12 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 305.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Under | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 667 | 44.5%297 W · 370 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Under | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ff…f464backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…5eefbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebf…dc08backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 50c | 20.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5this page
- Cavaliers vs. PistonsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 228.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.