NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03a719efdf9d4809549ff70fd1e330edef50a956a777e0da32617006c0cb6d2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Pistons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pistons | 51c | 48,399$24,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,765.9 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Cavaliers | 49c | 17,046$8,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,696.52 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Cavaliers | 50c | 15,334$7,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,704.71 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 13,511$6,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,025.72 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Cavaliers | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Pistons | 52c | 5,704$2,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,966.08 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pistons | 51c | 3,824$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,942 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Cavaliers | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Cavaliers | 48c | 1,946$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.26 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pistons | 49c | 1,471$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.37 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons | 49c | 795.53$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.03 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71f…3cafbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 585$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.65 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…92b2backed Pistons | 49c | 585$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.65 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Cavaliers | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…01b0backed Pistons | 51c | 437.49$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.12 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…2e08backed Cavaliers | 51c | 437.25$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.25 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…bfffbacked Pistons | 50c | 427.19$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 423.32$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.84 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Pistons | 50c | 373.53$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.77 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Pistons | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Cavaliers | 50c | 246.8$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.4 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fd…8bcfbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb0…cfdabacked Pistons | 51c | 207.84$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x647d…3cd9backed Cavaliers | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Pistons | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Pistons | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce12…0e76backed Cavaliers | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +6.4wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb612…2df3backed Pistons | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…d936backed Pistons | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fd…41c1backed Cavaliers | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Cavaliers | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc765…51e1backed Cavaliers | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Pistons | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Cavaliers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Pistons | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)this page
- Cavaliers vs. PistonsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 228.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 230.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.