TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf71f…3caf

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
33
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: MLB, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 53 out of 100; worst NBA at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT2343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+25%+$60
Spread: Spurs (-1.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$252
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$235
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.99
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$244
Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 217.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$286
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$210.7
Bulls vs. Clippers: O/U 235.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.1
Pacers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$6.9
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$22
WORLD vs. STARS: O/U 81.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$21.2
Spread: Kings (-6.5)backed Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,060Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+88.7%+$940
Spread: Knicks (-11.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$192
Spread: 76ers (-1.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$384Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$384
Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$672Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$671.96
Celtics vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$124.8
Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 230.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$28.6
Spread: Knicks (-4.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$14.4
Clippers vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+44.9%+$4.65
Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$289Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$289.1
Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+122.2%+$330
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$298Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$286.65
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+136.8%+$303.25
All 23 picks, newest first.
MLBlast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick61cpaid+82.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$596Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$158.3
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$252Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$348
All 2 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Texas A&M (-3.5)backed Texas A&M · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$46
Spread: Virginia (-6.5)backed Wake Forest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+100%+$300
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ravens vs. Dolphins: O/U 51.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$286Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$253.8
Texans vs. Seahawks: O/U 40.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$307Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$307.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 12, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sharks vs. Wild: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$300.9
Stars vs. Predatorsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$302Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$227.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$235
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
All 2 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.