NFL · resolved market
Texans vs. Seahawks: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7063435edaefed81102e12a045f5593828d6b13f5f903c4f2e898c0db0d45f40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 55c | 39,754$21,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,052.88 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 47c | 21,867$10,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,378.86 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Under | 54c | 7,654$4,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,133.16 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 12c | 7,280$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.01 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 6,689$3,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,137.67 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e0…d01cbacked Over | 52c | 5,127$2,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…8db1backed Under | 48c | 5,127$2,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 50c | 4,914$2,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,478.59 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…1ccbbacked Over | 48c | 4,334$2,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,233.18 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Over | 54c | 3,419$1,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.32 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 3,325$1,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.79 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9195…72a4backed Over | 53c | 2,830$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.19 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad3…4609backed Over | 52c | 2,319$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…9207backed Under | 48c | 2,319$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Under | 46c | 2,218$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.21 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 38c | 1,880$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.6 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 47c | 1,726$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.66 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 1,547$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.99 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…366bbacked Over | 52c | 1,222$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.56 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 106 | 24.5%26 W · 80 L | -12.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Under | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81d6…bec9backed Under | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 46c | 980.59$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.07 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1d…0f74backed Over | 53c | 929.64$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5a…2ea2backed Under | 47c | 929.64$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Over | 54c | 888$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.48 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 52c | 801.9$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.9 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Under | 62c | 783.1$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.52 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 53c | 755$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.85 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 47c | 749.98$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.49 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Under | 15c | 666$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf71f…3cafbacked Under | 48c | 640$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…797abacked Over | 52c | 640$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 47c | 509.08$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.27 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 492$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.32 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 54c | 336$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.56 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…eeccbacked Over | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Over | 53c | 210$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.7 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…7607backed Under | 49c | 168$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Over | 52c | 165.73$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.55 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…a2d3backed Over | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 38c | 128.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.42 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…ece9backed Over | 54c | 112.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Over | 45c | 76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 38c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f8…5897backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed Under | 55c | 42.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x416a…00a1backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6e…b1a7backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x166e…8f22backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texans vs. Seahawks: O/U 40.5this page
- Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)Seahawks won
- Texans vs. SeahawksSeahawks won
- Texans vs. Seahawks: O/U 41.5Over won
- Texans vs. Seahawks: O/U 42.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.