NFL · resolved market
Texans vs. Seahawks: O/U 41.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e0bda9eee9d7796dab019fe7e17a5148c6a36ba4e2b975762155ac88b0650d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 50c | 24,625$12,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,312.39 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 50c | 6,514$3,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,257.27 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260a…dbf6backed Over | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17b…dcffbacked Under | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 50c | 4,570$2,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,290.58 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 3,304$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.88 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 49c | 2,904$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,473.2 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 51c | 2,854$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.7 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 51c | 2,043$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.62 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 1,824$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.63 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 50c | 1,810$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 50c | 1,656$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.75 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 51c | 1,129$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.15 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 1c | 1,105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…aad4backed Under | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +52%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 51c | 633.92$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.3 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…5a60backed Under | 52c | 630$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0c4abacked Over | 48c | 630$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 54c | 302$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.08 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 46c | 302$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.08 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Under | 51c | 265$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.15 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…3ba7backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Under | 53c | 187.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.27 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 49c | 110.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…d153backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Under | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x416a…00a1backed Over | 50c | 41.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…4f9cbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…dafdbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 49c | 29.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 47c | 27.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc067…d9adbacked Over | 49c | 20.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texans vs. Seahawks: O/U 41.5this page
- Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)Seahawks won
- Texans vs. SeahawksSeahawks won
- Texans vs. Seahawks: O/U 40.5Over won
- Texans vs. Seahawks: O/U 42.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.