NFL · resolved market
Ravens vs. Dolphins: O/U 51.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3d268fe04a0f1d7c54f6e6de178db0793037294e4395d021de874d01aecbc6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 53c | 20,494$10,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,637.17 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 47c | 12,615$5,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,928.55 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 7,779$3,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,656.31 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 53c | 7,044$3,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,310.87 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 4,179$1,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.34 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 48c | 1,880$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.67 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 47c | 1,756$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.22 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac9…9678backed Over | 47c | 1,629$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.66 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 47c | 1,560$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.02 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Over | 47c | 936.17$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 47c | 613.69$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.2 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c19…3ec0backed Over | 47c | 540$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf71f…3cafbacked Under | 53c | 540$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 53c | 378$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.66 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 47c | 297.87$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 46c | 290.04$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.42 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fef…5840backed Under | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Under | 53c | 212$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 52c | 135.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…94abbacked Over | 46c | 126.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +70%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Under | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Under | 54c | 94.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8984…8af8backed Over | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4efb…76a0backed Over | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5061…1b03backed Over | 45c | 43.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…3ba6backed Over | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Over | 47c | 31.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe336…abf4backed Under | 69c | 28.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2791backed Under | 52c | 23.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ravens vs. Dolphins: O/U 51.5this page
- 1H Spread: Ravens (-4.5)Ravens won
- Ravens Team Total: O/U 30.5Under won
- Ravens vs. DolphinsRavens won
- Ravens vs. Dolphins: 1H MoneylineRavens won
- Ravens vs. Dolphins: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Ravens (-6.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-7.5)Ravens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.