NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9ae6cfc6a992b13c074d17fbea494c228de1f36ed67cc44093ab1f71363b13f

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,477
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $12,151

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,477 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Under	48c	4,660$2,224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,223.7	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	52c	3,892$2,030 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,862.23	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	53c	1,132$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$532.04	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	53c	1,026$548 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$477.28	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	54c	569.29$306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$263.16	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x561b…837ebacked Under	47c	469.99$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.89	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+2.4wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x964c…0a17backed Over	54c	400$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184	72	37.5%27 W · 45 L	-5.1wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f07…0c4abacked Over	53c	370$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.9	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7448…b4cfbacked Over	52c	292.98$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.63	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc468…530fbacked Under	49c	289.72$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.11	94	43.6%41 W · 53 L	-12.3wins	-0.13per pick	57cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf71f…3cafbacked Under	48c	260$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.8	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under	44c	227.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over	55c	200$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…ecf3backed Under	43c	163$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.09	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb781…0adcbacked Over	59c	162.05$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.44	50	52%26 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ee…5c69backed Over	60c	152$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.4	141	37.6%53 W · 88 L	-11.2wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	48c	136.72$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.5	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Over	52c	129.01$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.99	503	47.9%241 W · 262 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d43…86e7backed Under	48c	111.63$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.58	54	50%27 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10ba…b202backed Over	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa42b…45d2backed Under	42c	100$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	96	53.1%51 W · 45 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	43c	90$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.7	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7180…bdbabacked Over	59c	84.75$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.75	156	57.7%90 W · 66 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5425…8b3abacked Over	58c	83.69$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.15	291	56.4%164 W · 127 L	+13.8wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	48c	83.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa65b…b0c0backed Under	43c	81$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.83	95	60%57 W · 38 L	+10.7wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Over	70c	80$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	760	54.6%415 W · 345 L	+56.7wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc36…1b11backed Under	30c	80$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	99	43.4%43 W · 56 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…dce6backed Under	43c	78$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.54	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8de1…2d12backed Over	52c	76.92$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.92	169	68.6%116 W · 53 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	65cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under	50c	75$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.38	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x309d…3a8abacked Under	43c	74$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.82	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	-5.6wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under	46c	72.56$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.44	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8a3…a380backed Under	42c	69$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.98	86	44.2%38 W · 48 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd854…924fbacked Under	43c	69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.67	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4dc…d394backed Under	43c	62$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.66	69	52.2%36 W · 33 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ad…5a42backed Under	49c	61.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	84	52.4%44 W · 40 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1313…866abacked Over	57c	58$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.94	46	52.2%24 W · 22 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x061e…81e0backed Over	58c	51.72$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.72	198	49%97 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9acf…bd74backed Over	57c	49$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.07	37	62.2%23 W · 14 L	+3.1wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x98ae…2bfebacked Over	57c	48$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.64	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Over	52c	46$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.08	277	47.7%132 W · 145 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a6…bbd5backed Over	58c	43$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.06	35	54.3%19 W · 16 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2587…a117backed Under	43c	41$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.63	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x110d…cd01backed Over	59c	40.68$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.68	345	56.2%194 W · 151 L	+17.1wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed Under	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	250	58.4%146 W · 104 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76a3…5249backed Over	55c	35.02$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.64	144	41%59 W · 85 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa4…b6a4backed Over	57c	33$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.19	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	+3.7wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+26%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f40…92b2backed Under	48c	33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a9…f72ebacked Over	57c	31$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.33	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x34b2…cec2backed Over	57c	31$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.33	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x279b…7d84backed Over	57c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.9	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f33…8f17backed Over	57c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.9	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4d0…9b74backed Over	57c	29$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.47	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6f8…256ebacked Over	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	95	47.4%45 W · 50 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Over	54c	27.78$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	564	54.3%306 W · 258 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2091…b4f8backed Over	55c	27.43$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.43	76	39.5%30 W · 46 L	-9.7wins	-0.13per pick	52cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xffac…d469backed Over	58c	26.79$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.25	32	62.5%20 W · 12 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78a4…05afbacked Over	58c	26$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.92	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b32…00a5backed Under	43c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ba8…bc05backed Under	48c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	47	51.1%24 W · 23 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0d8…480bbacked Under	43c	23.35$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.04	83	36.1%30 W · 53 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe13a…6bb5backed Over	57c	22$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.46	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Over	53c	21$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.87	380	48.7%185 W · 195 L	-12.0wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a7c…1214backed Over	57c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.6	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	67c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.65	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb75…bc16backed Over	57c	19$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.17	28	50%14 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0aae…e845backed Over	57c	18$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.74	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Celtics vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event