NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Celtics (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8498277599a0e4c68968088c1d70f566e9644cdecc28c12df3a549aeb2cd887

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Celtics, Jazz
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,192
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,584

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,192 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Celtics	48c	400$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Jazz	52c	400$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192	380	46.6%177 W · 203 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…5ab9backed Jazz	47c	300$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	-4.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f9…5526backed Jazz	46c	149$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.21	76	51.3%39 W · 37 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49c…6dcabacked Jazz	47c	135$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.55	79	51.9%41 W · 38 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7567…0923backed Jazz	46c	133$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.82	56	51.8%29 W · 27 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc938…af43backed Jazz	46c	126$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.04	76	48.7%37 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7a…6563backed Jazz	47c	106$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.18	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Jazz	50c	103.92$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.92	304	54.9%167 W · 137 L	+16.3wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27ed…57ebbacked Jazz	46c	71$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.34	73	61.6%45 W · 28 L	+9.6wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x84f0…327cbacked Jazz	47c	69$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.57	39	61.5%24 W · 15 L	+4.6wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4d0…9b74backed Celtics	53c	61$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.3	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc427…ee41backed Jazz	46c	54$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.16	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	+3.1wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Celtics	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	185	49.2%91 W · 94 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x063c…d642backed Celtics	53c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	-4.4wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6162…e856backed Celtics	53c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	35	62.9%22 W · 13 L	+3.4wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x62e6…f251backed Celtics	53c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa554…e53dbacked Celtics	53c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x00f6…c5d2backed Celtics	53c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-2.4wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d19…8b58backed Celtics	53c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-19%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Jazz	46c	49$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.46	69	53.6%37 W · 32 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Celtics	49c	48.92$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.97	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d19…0b39backed Celtics	54c	48$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.92	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfadc…a4e8backed Celtics	53c	46$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.38	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-3.0wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-25%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd595…7893backed Celtics	53c	45$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.85	39	64.1%25 W · 14 L	+5.1wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd851…9305backed Jazz	46c	45$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.3	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae69…0c24backed Celtics	54c	44$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.76	40	60%24 W · 16 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e1a…60e5backed Celtics	54c	42$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.68	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2999…50bcbacked Celtics	53c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…2f86backed Celtics	55c	38$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.9	40	62.5%25 W · 15 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7d4…c5cdbacked Celtics	53c	37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.61	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-3.0wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b80…8e56backed Celtics	54c	37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	28	50%14 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e02…c5f2backed Celtics	54c	33$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.82	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-4.7wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfa46…1559backed Celtics	54c	31$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.74	41	65.9%27 W · 14 L	+5.2wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9942…5b7dbacked Celtics	54c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-3.7wins	-0.15per pick	51cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe3b3…27babacked Celtics	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96d2…dc9bbacked Celtics	55c	27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	34	50%17 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x806c…3381backed Celtics	55c	26$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6393…dde9backed Celtics	54c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb5…6a69backed Celtics	53c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.13	30	40%12 W · 18 L	-3.7wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd5c…1f57backed Celtics	53c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.13	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb665…95a8backed Celtics	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5956…e127backed Celtics	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2614…1000backed Celtics	54c	19$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.26	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

1H Spread: Celtics (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event