NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Celtics (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55b5edf26cf9319fb29b4cae5d7c2f2498458664e807551f73578cc8aad2acce

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Celtics, Jazz
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,917
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,917

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,917 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3a7a…15a4backed Jazz	56c	2,682$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,181.79	310	44.8%139 W · 171 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Celtics	44c	1,018$448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$447.92	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Celtics	44c	1,000$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	446	54.3%242 W · 204 L	+21.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb82d…5d1ebacked Jazz	51c	325$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.56	94	46.8%44 W · 50 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Celtics	44c	317.43$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.67	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Celtics	44c	200$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9061…9510backed Jazz	52c	150$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72	71	62%44 W · 27 L	+8.4wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+22%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc427…ee41backed Celtics	47c	140$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.8	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	+3.1wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7567…0923backed Jazz	50c	113$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.5	56	51.8%29 W · 27 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3d8…c8c0backed Celtics	45c	107$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.15	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06f4…758dbacked Jazz	51c	79$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.71	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Celtics	45c	75$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.75	539	51.6%278 W · 261 L	+20.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc880…a622backed Celtics	45c	63$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.35	74	41.9%31 W · 43 L	-4.5wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f6c…ac71backed Celtics	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	41	53.7%22 W · 19 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Celtics	46c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	185	49.2%91 W · 94 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30ee…5d12backed Celtics	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-2.7wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e48…c958backed Celtics	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda6e…e417backed Celtics	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd851…9305backed Celtics	45c	49$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.05	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed3f…0ab8backed Celtics	44c	48$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.12	87	49.4%43 W · 44 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e02…c5f2backed Celtics	49c	48$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.52	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-4.7wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Jazz	50c	43$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	69	53.6%37 W · 32 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x315a…b24cbacked Celtics	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2877…dc5bbacked Celtics	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-4.4wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc716…f0d7backed Jazz	51c	39$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.11	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	+3.4wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa554…e53dbacked Jazz	55c	38$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.1	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05ba…2117backed Celtics	49c	35$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.15	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdd0…4938backed Jazz	51c	34$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.66	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+3.6wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7219…fcf7backed Jazz	53c	34$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.98	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68e8…4facbacked Jazz	55c	34$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	50	48%24 W · 26 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2999…50bcbacked Celtics	50c	33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x62f0…afe6backed Jazz	53c	33$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.51	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5935…b8dabacked Jazz	55c	32$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	25	68%17 W · 8 L	+4.2wins	+0.17per pick	51cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x36c9…3f9fbacked Jazz	56c	31$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.64	29	69%20 W · 9 L	+5.0wins	+0.17per pick	52cpaid	+31%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xda03…7f8cbacked Celtics	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa029…c912backed Jazz	53c	29$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.63	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e29…c992backed Jazz	55c	29$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.05	51	64.7%33 W · 18 L	+6.4wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x07a4…be3abacked Jazz	55c	29$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.05	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+2.3wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe13a…6bb5backed Celtics	50c	28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbba…e95bbacked Celtics	50c	28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1315…d32ebacked Jazz	53c	27$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.69	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfaac…1045backed Celtics	49c	27$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.23	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3be0…e4e5backed Jazz	55c	25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.25	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6098…d746backed Celtics	50c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-9.8wins	-0.35per pick	49cpaid	-72.9%equal weight	30-0.18 edge/pick
0x07eb…4b4cbacked Jazz	55c	24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab0…8383backed Celtics	49c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e1a…60e5backed Celtics	50c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

1H Spread: Celtics (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event