NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda57c974d49a51c358834a8fc614771f185820fade51a0f475b16215d40fd2c9

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $26,177
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $29,773

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,177 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x95d4…c38cbacked Under	33c	7,000$2,295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,295	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	51c	4,971$2,531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,530.8	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	68c	4,140$2,806 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,334.21	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	49c	3,947$1,934 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,012.89	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	49c	2,802$1,365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,365.39	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	34c	2,750$949 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$948.62	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ce3…9edbbacked Over	49c	2,750$1,347 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,402.48	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.4wins	-0.29per pick	42cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbdb1…15fabacked Under	51c	1,896$967 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$966.83	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	56cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68bf…3e67backed Over	50c	1,500$743 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$757.5	102	44.1%45 W · 57 L	-6.9wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Over	51c	1,001$511 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490.49	520	52.3%272 W · 248 L	+31.4wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+19%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Over	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	183	45.4%83 W · 100 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Over	56c	1,000$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$440	503	47.9%241 W · 262 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	70c	639.11$446 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$193.35	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	50c	600$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c2…629fbacked Under	51c	184.33$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.01	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2000…df78backed Under	50c	104$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	80	53.8%43 W · 37 L	+5.6wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa42b…45d2backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	96	53.1%51 W · 45 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7203…c123backed Under	21c	95.34$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.03	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x73fd…5166backed Under	50c	92$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ca…0a0dbacked Over	49c	67.34$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.34	126	48.4%61 W · 65 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Under	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Under	51c	38$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.38	379	49.3%187 W · 192 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Under	51c	28.31$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.44	302	44%133 W · 169 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec54…a03dbacked Under	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	109	57.8%63 W · 46 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Celtics vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event