Asian League · resolved market
Will Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Kawasaki Frontale end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3200b0e2bc0e65c5b167b44292d2fcefee7d9cb28d06812ce83a941b5aacf44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5a4…5780backed No | 69c | 5,800$4,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,797.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 3,281$2,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.86 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 31c | 1,268$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.67 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 10c | 599.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb5…ec99backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 22c | 299.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed Yes | 26c | 259.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.59 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +116%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Yes | 22c | 169.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 34c | 142.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64de…25a1backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 121.43$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 22c | 106.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 30c | 103.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 69c | 57.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Yes | 30c | 50.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 33c | 44.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 73c | 40.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 71c | 29.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 74c | 26.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 74c | 26.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x020e…69c1backed No | 70c | 20.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Kawasaki Frontale end in a draw?this page
- Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-04-29?No won
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-04-29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.