Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3230b6cfce3d6f5d47711671a910e978d58048915827d6a2df2dc378150d838
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bb7…2838backed Yes | 1c | 3,498$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 2,545$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 1,260$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 4c | 974.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 635.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed No | 67c | 564.46$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.17 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 4c | 514.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 33c | 425.46$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.24 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 10c | 420.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed Yes | 34c | 324.11$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.62 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 311.31$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.39 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 25c | 257.75$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 223.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 207.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…b590backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 148.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 122.45$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df0…61a8backed Yes | 12c | 118.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 17c | 114.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…785ebacked Yes | 22c | 113.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 16c | 96.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 33c | 86.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 22c | 83.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 69c | 76.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 68.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 40c | 66.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 32c | 66.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…198dbacked Yes | 19c | 64.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 40c | 49.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 70c | 43.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…2f45backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…ac1ebacked Yes | 36c | 39.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 70c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 32c | 38.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 34.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 38c | 29.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 28.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2313…b4d3backed No | 72c | 15.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.