Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7527c0994363a76f1a0c71679f20b61f279f1bac2a205ecec26bf26432b754e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 32,892$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 21c | 583.62$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.39 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 36c | 442.75$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.74 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 49c | 383.67$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.48 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 340.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 312$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 5c | 283.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed No | 60c | 268.66$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.81 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 13c | 241.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf096…28a8backed Yes | 35c | 229.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 34c | 202.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 168.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 23c | 147.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 28c | 141.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 17c | 131.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 54c | 122.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 76c | 121.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 19c | 114.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 21c | 112.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 25c | 108.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 16c | 106.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 24c | 102.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 95.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 46c | 87.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 16c | 83.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…1670backed Yes | 31c | 80.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 79.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 72.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 19c | 72.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 26c | 65.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 23c | 64.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 21c | 64.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 19c | 62.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 45.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 55c | 43.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 61c | 41.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…9fe1backed Yes | 46c | 41.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 74c | 39.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3549…55febacked Yes | 38c | 37.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d7…1c40backed No | 78c | 33.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked No | 53c | 26.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 48c | 24.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073f…3a3dbacked No | 79c | 22.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf7…ebeabacked No | 66c | 21.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 21.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936b…0e39backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 76c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0805…e578backed Yes | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 63c | 19.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 18.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.