Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff8adb154e6e43186b2995d1e6d3f54082e15ac99017b8d5b02897c505b9b7f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed No | 0c | 26,689$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 1c | 13,678$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.44 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 7,797$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ba…c42fbacked No | 4c | 5,149$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.93 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 7c | 2,172$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.05 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 29c | 1,429$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.4 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…3c1fbacked No | 3c | 1,158$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed No | 1c | 1,130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 8c | 1,058$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.05 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…a8d0backed No | 4c | 1,039$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf321…d10bbacked No | 1c | 980.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…1f83backed No | 4c | 564.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf36d…af97backed No | 4c | 462.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked No | 11c | 434.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 33c | 411.47$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.01 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 51c | 383.28$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.9 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1647…4f84backed No | 5c | 370.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 61c | 337.05$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.26 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 312$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…031abacked No | 20c | 297.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 5c | 290.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 15c | 273.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…00ecbacked No | 7c | 255.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 249.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 18c | 210.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.82 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 40c | 209.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.13 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 203.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 34c | 142.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.03 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 27c | 138.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3549…55febacked Yes | 72c | 130.02$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 33c | 123.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 10c | 118.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 39c | 116.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 10c | 115.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.01 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 32c | 114.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 11c | 101.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.01 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 18c | 96.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460e…4b84backed No | 12c | 91.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 36c | 89.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked Yes | 12c | 87.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.82 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b4…7bcabacked No | 30c | 79.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…c3b0backed No | 21c | 76.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…198dbacked Yes | 77c | 75.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 30c | 73.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 44c | 67.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 17c | 67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 24c | 59.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 17c | 59.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 72c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 46c | 51.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 60c | 49.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee6d…5e2cbacked No | 55c | 47.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 32c | 41.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 78c | 41.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed No | 57c | 38.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 43c | 35.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 54c | 32.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 54c | 32.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 68c | 29.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 49c | 28.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 67c | 26.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed No | 72c | 24.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 67c | 24.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…d74cbacked Yes | 80c | 23.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 79c | 17.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 16.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…fe1bbacked Yes | 72c | 14.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.