Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3288d34618f2efb3ffacdea3fbde25a45a409c8ca68a6611cc9e96cb280901b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 15c | 598$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.94 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 528.27$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.55 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 55c | 449$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.95 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 45c | 133.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.58 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 45c | 106$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 45c | 79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 45c | 74.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 45c | 59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 45c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 45c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 138 | 59.4%82 W · 56 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +13.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Under | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ba82backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 22.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 68cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.