AI · resolved market
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa38b66d42e953997abb37d1f6ee5304c289f40511d5274150564a009bd1dc44a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $250,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $308,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $250,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed Yes | 6c | 89,850$5,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,190.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 0c | 37,372$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.17 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 3,771$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…36b0backed Yes | 7c | 2,857$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 10c | 2,054$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.18 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,759$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,636$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6251…e10cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7799…ad20backed Yes | 7c | 1,021$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ee2dbacked Yes | 7c | 940$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 5c | 900$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 882$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…68acbacked Yes | 12c | 861.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 22c | 700$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.11 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf46…c363backed Yes | 6c | 666.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 578.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 11c | 573.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 5c | 520$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…19d1backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f87…77c6backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9412…9528backed Yes | 4c | 484.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 9c | 335.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dca…2dc8backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…148dbacked Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff8b…effcbacked Yes | 4c | 256.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe646…c07cbacked Yes | 9c | 233.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd706…fac2backed Yes | 8c | 228.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0752…e48ebacked Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 12c | 188.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 8c | 141.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…aaadbacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5634…3582backed Yes | 16c | 66.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.