Tennis · resolved market
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Monastir 28 (Tunisia), hard: Louis Larue vs Toufik Sahtali
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa39199d635c28450ac29f5033e75440f716b84fbfa1ef1f0dc1028f2bbe19434
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toufik Sahtaliof Louis Larue, Toufik Sahtali
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb2e…8895backed Louis Larue | 58c | 1,710$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toufik Sahtali | 42c | 869.05$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.03 | 11,877 | 43.3%5,143 W · 6,734 L | +19.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Toufik Sahtali | 62c | 343.87$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.72 | 3,952 | 55.1%2,176 W · 1,776 L | +107.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Toufik Sahtali | 52c | 295.44$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.44 | 1,487 | 45.1%671 W · 816 L | +43.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Toufik Sahtali | 57c | 208.55$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.68 | 8,127 | 50.8%4,126 W · 4,001 L | +84.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Louis Larue | 43c | 185.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 8,921 | 42.6%3,799 W · 5,122 L | -169.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Louis Larue | 32c | 156.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 978 | 58.5%572 W · 406 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Toufik Sahtali | 40c | 145.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.51 | 6,725 | 46.2%3,108 W · 3,617 L | -42.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Louis Larue | 42c | 115.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 1,398 | 39.1%546 W · 852 L | -25.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Toufik Sahtali | 56c | 115$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 2,164 | 56.1%1,214 W · 950 L | +42.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Louis Larue | 44c | 104.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 877 | 38.2%335 W · 542 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293c…dcbabacked Toufik Sahtali | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 395 | 53.9%213 W · 182 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Toufik Sahtali | 51c | 87.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 1,109 | 48%532 W · 577 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Toufik Sahtali | 51c | 61.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 6,584 | 54.4%3,584 W · 3,000 L | +286.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…ef05backed Louis Larue | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 378 | 63%238 W · 140 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Toufik Sahtali | 42c | 46.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 2,076 | 52.9%1,099 W · 977 L | +33.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Louis Larue | 43c | 38.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 726 | 38.3%278 W · 448 L | -34.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd2…afcebacked Louis Larue | 44c | 37.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa261…af5bbacked Toufik Sahtali | 43c | 35.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7618…24c6backed Toufik Sahtali | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -10.3wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -36%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd15d…b2cfbacked Toufik Sahtali | 66c | 22.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Louis Larue | 48c | 22.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,856 | 46.8%868 W · 988 L | -55.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Louis Larue | 58c | 21.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1e…6e1fbacked Toufik Sahtali | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.