UFC · resolved market
Will Imanol Rodriguez win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3bdc8ec14a5d0770b4ed4bb63e405f4770611f0b7d7abe3e01408c6bf1b7e71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 44c | 624.18$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.84 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…d703backed Yes | 53c | 467.86$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.86 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 48c | 450$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…b2a1backed Yes | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…cd57backed Yes | 5c | 277.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 12cpaid | +542.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked No | 50c | 274.24$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.12 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec71…70ebbacked Yes | 50c | 270.12$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.12 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -5.3wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…868dbacked Yes | 58c | 33.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaec…c07fbacked Yes | 56c | 21.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Imanol Rodriguez win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Imanol Rodriguez (Flyweight, Main Card)Rodriguez won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.