Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3c083e563e8b96089f63710a60cc91794e96739f4175e473f8ec3f53ff56ae9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 250.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 7c | 214.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 113.07$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 69c | 98.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 84.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 35c | 65.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed No | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 36c | 61.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 60.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 62c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 43c | 54.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 67c | 53.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 39c | 52.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 38c | 47.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1de3backed Yes | 36c | 45.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 44.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 60c | 41.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 41.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 34c | 40.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 58c | 39.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 32c | 35.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 63c | 31.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 66c | 21.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 66c | 21.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 16.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 15.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 51°F or below on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.