Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0cf46e372b0308c48a9444edbf60788d8199fbb8b5099361728344b1903c5db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 463.44$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.4 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 54c | 309.1$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.35 | 681 | 50.5%344 W · 337 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 14c | 220.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 59c | 210$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 1,489 | 24.6%366 W · 1,123 L | -34.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 61c | 202.32$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.96 | 458 | 62%284 W · 174 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 54c | 169.22$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 719 | 42%302 W · 417 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 46c | 152.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.68 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 139.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1de3backed No | 70c | 136.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac1f…cf6abacked Yes | 9c | 136.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…8046backed No | 78c | 131.96$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 39c | 127.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.87 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 62c | 123.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 119.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 22c | 118.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 425 | 36.7%156 W · 269 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 38c | 110.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 110.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 32c | 102.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1,801 | 50.4%907 W · 894 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 98.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 18c | 84.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 37c | 80.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Yes | 46c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 79.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…8188backed Yes | 42c | 73.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +359.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 72c | 73.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 148 | 87.8%130 W · 18 L | +28.3wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 54c | 71.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 876 | 24.2%212 W · 664 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 67.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 66c | 60.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 1,464 | 58.5%857 W · 607 L | +71.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 34c | 60.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 58.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 50.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 2,260 | 58.3%1,318 W · 942 L | +85.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 72c | 46.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 46.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 41c | 46.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 41.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 46c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 62c | 32.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 483 | 58.8%284 W · 199 L | +18.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 35c | 30.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 47c | 30.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 63c | 28.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1,612 | 60.4%974 W · 638 L | -22.0wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 27.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 1,275 | 47.6%607 W · 668 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 66c | 21.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d7dfbacked No | 69c | 15.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 51°F or below on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.