South American Leagues · resolved market
SE Palmeiras vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3c93102f658ecb64e404def415d77341536921ac88068849a14d4c587a1bb5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 61c | 651.63$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.81 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…0019backed Over | 24c | 560.67$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.61 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 40c | 496.77$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.58 | 192 | 34.9%67 W · 125 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 38c | 421.57$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.73 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x172b…e2cdbacked Under | 62c | 406.54$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 74c | 348.77$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.77 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…eda7backed Under | 58c | 259.11$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 22c | 249.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 2,346 | 51.4%1,207 W · 1,139 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 34c | 223.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 65c | 213.08$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked Over | 26c | 212.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +29%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938c…e3dbbacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 78c | 63.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…0d55backed Under | 70c | 56.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…0d4abacked Under | 76c | 52.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…47a8backed Under | 67c | 44.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 65c | 38.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 727 | 50.5%367 W · 360 L | -25.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…e195backed Over | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 54c | 33.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 25.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 77c | 16.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 77c | 16.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 188 | 59%111 W · 77 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 77c | 16.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 261 | 60.9%159 W · 102 L | +20.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 79c | 15.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Under | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SE Palmeiras vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.