TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Grêmio FBPAof SE Palmeiras, Grêmio FBPA
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,835
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,865

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,835 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x44c5…8d45backed SE Palmeiras32c15,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.9331349.8%156 W · 157 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb22…6478backed Grêmio FBPA60c14,177$8,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,609.0129446.6%137 W · 157 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked SE Palmeiras39c10,223$3,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,985.363151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Grêmio FBPA68c5,549$3,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,775.781,32857%757 W · 571 L+57.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Grêmio FBPA69c5,432$3,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,707.368,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Grêmio FBPA61c4,907$2,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,913.674339.5%17 W · 26 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked SE Palmeiras39c4,828$1,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,883.015736.8%21 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+49.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3102…187cbacked Grêmio FBPA58c1,500$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.95850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Grêmio FBPA68c1,120$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.0733560.9%204 W · 131 L+18.7wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Grêmio FBPA68c830.34$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.0272350.5%365 W · 358 L-24.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Grêmio FBPA66c796.71$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.361,36244.9%611 W · 751 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed SE Palmeiras40c739.34$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.399727.8%27 W · 70 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d91…df18backed SE Palmeiras35c688.54$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.957951.9%41 W · 38 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Grêmio FBPA68c611.63$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.1836757.5%211 W · 156 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed SE Palmeiras41c575.93$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.45651.8%29 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked SE Palmeiras18c525.72$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.631,53745.2%695 W · 842 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Grêmio FBPA68c514.8$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.739457.4%54 W · 40 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x972f…65bdbacked SE Palmeiras40c508.51$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.4313257.6%76 W · 56 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked SE Palmeiras41c488.77$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8837851.3%194 W · 184 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cae…fdc1backed SE Palmeiras39c317.45$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.282339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked SE Palmeiras41c298.02$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.363,40551.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf69c…44dbbacked SE Palmeiras38c253.37$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.282850%14 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4192…d6aabacked SE Palmeiras41c210$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.12050%10 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa46d…d8e5backed SE Palmeiras41c210$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.11850%9 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked SE Palmeiras39c199.97$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.991921.1%4 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.21per pick42cpaid-58.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd810…2eb8backed SE Palmeiras41c185$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.851952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked Grêmio FBPA68c144.71$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.643467.6%23 W · 11 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed SE Palmeiras33c136.63$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.648451.2%43 W · 41 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed SE Palmeiras41c132.77$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.171,65150.6%836 W · 815 L-4.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked SE Palmeiras41c130.96$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.41,35549.7%674 W · 681 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Grêmio FBPA52c120.45$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.812,33551.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L+2.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb85…eda7backed Grêmio FBPA68c111.06$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.54771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Grêmio FBPA68c110.76$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8635758%207 W · 150 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed SE Palmeiras22c105.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.671619.7%141 W · 575 L-49.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-32.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked SE Palmeiras48c100.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.446657.6%38 W · 28 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6203…5544backed SE Palmeiras41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415339.6%21 W · 32 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x895c…d405backed SE Palmeiras41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed SE Palmeiras32c99.7$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.92962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b0f…c7e8backed SE Palmeiras44c89.39$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.331315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-71.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed SE Palmeiras26c87.24$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.362934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed SE Palmeiras42c71.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9963657.5%366 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x806b…cccabacked Grêmio FBPA68c71.37$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.751637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked SE Palmeiras42c71.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7917857.3%102 W · 76 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed SE Palmeiras41c70.42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8710943.1%47 W · 62 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked SE Palmeiras41c70.42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8724253.3%129 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked SE Palmeiras42c68.7$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8619955.8%111 W · 88 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed SE Palmeiras42c67.85$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6819056.3%107 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed SE Palmeiras43c66.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9840242%169 W · 233 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Grêmio FBPA73c65.7$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.81,09155.6%607 W · 484 L-19.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Grêmio FBPA68c64.52$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6529245.2%132 W · 160 L-24.0wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x483b…027ebacked SE Palmeiras38c63.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd12…9debbacked SE Palmeiras38c62.58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.78650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Grêmio FBPA68c59.41$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0116050.6%81 W · 79 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Grêmio FBPA68c57.73$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5219264.1%123 W · 69 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Grêmio FBPA61c53.37$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8145253.1%240 W · 212 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Grêmio FBPA68c50.55$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.183053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa71c…e905backed SE Palmeiras41c47.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.52450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Grêmio FBPA57c47.72$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.529953.5%53 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed SE Palmeiras41c47.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3842962.2%267 W · 162 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed SE Palmeiras42c47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.742,61154.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed SE Palmeiras37c45.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7155155%303 W · 248 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f0c…a98fbacked SE Palmeiras39c44.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.552564%16 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked SE Palmeiras42c35.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9518154.7%99 W · 82 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Grêmio FBPA57c35.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4413050.8%66 W · 64 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8900…a444backed Grêmio FBPA63c35.57$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.044761.7%29 W · 18 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed SE Palmeiras42c34.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5120953.1%111 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0198…37e6backed SE Palmeiras42c34.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.343461.8%21 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed SE Palmeiras42c33.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9916255.6%90 W · 72 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb17…32b2backed SE Palmeiras42c33.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.894957.1%28 W · 21 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7190…00e7backed Grêmio FBPA65c32.57$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.531369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+46.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc3c3…9569backed SE Palmeiras53c32.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked SE Palmeiras42c31.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0726160.9%159 W · 102 L+20.4wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0908…0207backed SE Palmeiras40c31.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ce5…af2ebacked Grêmio FBPA63c31.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.494362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed Grêmio FBPA68c28.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.13444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed SE Palmeiras42c28.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8628158.7%165 W · 116 L+12.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Grêmio FBPA71c27.26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.924654.9%135 W · 111 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…0026backed Grêmio FBPA69c21.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Grêmio FBPA68c19.5$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.248961.8%55 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.