Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3d561cdae4b4411243d53c565c6ad63ac0df27a5053e8eb0907ebfdb19b9204
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 557.68$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 3c | 425$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…fad1backed Yes | 33c | 347.06$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.07 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 289.05$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 62c | 238.97$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.03 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 236.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 52c | 159.48$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.51 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed Yes | 35c | 135.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 52c | 124.45$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 19c | 123.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 118.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 35c | 91.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 57c | 87.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…5967backed Yes | 27c | 81.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 79.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 41c | 71.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 68.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 62c | 67.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 66.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…bf1abacked Yes | 47c | 63.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 61.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 25c | 60.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 51c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 59.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 56.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 40c | 56.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 31c | 52.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…9e4bbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 44c | 49.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 67c | 49.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…faf9backed Yes | 34c | 47.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 29c | 46.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 52c | 46.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 42c | 42.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 40.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 71c | 39.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 31c | 38.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 47c | 34.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…5671backed Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 54c | 33.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 47c | 33.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 43c | 32.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 33c | 31.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 33c | 31.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 63c | 30.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…f500backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 53c | 28.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 27.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 59c | 27.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f49…2f6cbacked No | 68c | 27.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 51c | 26.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 57c | 25.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed No | 69c | 24.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 58c | 23.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 60c | 19.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac55…203fbacked No | 69c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 18.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 58c | 17.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x27c6…52a5backed No | 69c | 17.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 62c | 16.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 66c | 16.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…72cfbacked No | 68c | 15.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.