Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x415c4ea3a02cbfd4eb86809980bc0494c29864149eaf31acf58227f83d84b928
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,477$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 1,009$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.48 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…1a73backed No | 77c | 789.04$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.6 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 5c | 625.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 625.25$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 608.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.32 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 519.94$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.3 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 78c | 500$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.5 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 475.71$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 35c | 400.58$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.5 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked No | 80c | 369.3$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.87 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed Yes | 80c | 300.17$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 38c | 250.65$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.85 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 5c | 249.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 244.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 210.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 54c | 202.18$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 19c | 199.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.68 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 193.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.56 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 20c | 191.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.87 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 23c | 182.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.97 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked Yes | 26c | 173.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.5 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 163.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.08 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 77c | 158.86$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 25c | 150.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.37 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 69c | 139.85$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 78c | 139.85$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.92 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 137.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 17c | 137.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.57 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 39c | 132.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.71 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd62c…4efcbacked No | 58c | 131.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 130$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…ca1bbacked No | 55c | 114.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 78c | 114.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 29c | 113.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 16c | 101.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.35 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 57c | 99.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 73c | 99.01$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 20c | 95.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 90.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…fad1backed Yes | 19c | 86.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 49c | 86.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 29c | 80.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 36c | 73.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 71.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 69c | 66.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 79c | 53.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 75c | 49.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 80c | 49.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 70c | 48.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 23c | 44.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 44.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…faf9backed Yes | 24c | 43.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 76c | 37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 77c | 35.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 55c | 34.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 45c | 31.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed No | 77c | 28.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed Yes | 55c | 26.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 45c | 25.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 25.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 74c | 21.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21fc…da6abacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 68c | 18.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 15.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 15.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 15.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…b814backed No | 78c | 12.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.