Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x129b9fbc8047ac4d5ecffb5b43b3449c3e3ed30bf4a1bd8a5caf5a4094b86f2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 4c | 549.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 5c | 383.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x220a…9181backed Yes | 13c | 305.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 4c | 288.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…5967backed Yes | 32c | 245.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 235.43$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 224.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 212.78$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 16c | 177.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 148.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 138.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 134.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 14c | 126.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 78c | 84.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 19c | 84.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 75.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 77c | 73.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 19c | 68.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed Yes | 36c | 65.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 37c | 62.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…51f6backed Yes | 33c | 58.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed Yes | 23c | 53.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 51.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…faf9backed Yes | 40c | 50.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 31c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f3…92d6backed Yes | 31c | 42.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 39.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 75c | 37.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…3697backed No | 71c | 34.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdc…a29abacked No | 80c | 29.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ca…65a1backed No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 78c | 26.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed No | 69c | 26.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 24.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d1…685abacked No | 80c | 23.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 69c | 22.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 76c | 21.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 70c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 77c | 20.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 63c | 19.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 76c | 18.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 69c | 15.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.