Asian League · resolved market
Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3d720c3645117563733d203b11397649be94d096a345fcea6e051332c3b689c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 68c | 5,336$3,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723.71 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 20c | 3,000$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 245 | 23.3%57 W · 188 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 21c | 2,865$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.88 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 79c | 2,149$1,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.67 | 1,749 | 50.7%887 W · 862 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 48c | 1,561$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.65 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 80c | 1,247$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.19 | 1,116 | 49.5%552 W · 564 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 2c | 1,109$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 935 | 35.2%329 W · 606 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 3c | 1,019$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 20c | 530$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 20c | 480.82$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 762 | 39.2%299 W · 463 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 460.58$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.65 | 1,464 | 35.6%521 W · 943 L | -33.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c1…8036backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 18c | 277.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1,080 | 41.7%450 W · 630 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Yes | 35c | 171.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Yes | 18c | 129.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 56c | 101.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 10.5%15 W · 128 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 80c | 91.77$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1,991 | 54.1%1,078 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…41b2backed Yes | 13c | 90.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 11c | 89.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 144 | 40.3%58 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked Yes | 23c | 89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 62c | 85.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 35c | 78.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 35c | 73.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…b6e2backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 77c | 53.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 202 | 56.4%114 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7afb…6f29backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…1aabbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Yes | 53c | 31.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 80c | 23.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 69c | 20.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed No | 80c | 18.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 78c | 17.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2,456 | 37.9%931 W · 1,525 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 65c | 16.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 565 | 45.5%257 W · 308 L | -24.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 78c | 16.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…ceecbacked No | 80c | 13.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-08-01?Yes won
- Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-08-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.