MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3f591a88e068e8750411f0f2356e18284d71f1a6fa0c28acbef0af338805ede
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 41c | 58,887$24,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,743.46 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 58,575$34,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,559.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ad…ae4bbacked Under | 65c | 1,402$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 35c | 989.6$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.55 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 57c | 414.98$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed Over | 35c | 213.61$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.85 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 35c | 148.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.27 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 139.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 34c | 94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb515…7e2bbacked Over | 47c | 79.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 50c | 76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Under | 61c | 70.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 39c | 63.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Over | 41c | 58.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 35c | 49.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5this page
- Athletics vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Athletics vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.