MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x157239637125ec7cded892802caa13febe461436e32d447b088cc74bf9425625
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 49c | 10,337$5,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,249.79 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 32c | 4,549$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.71 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 56c | 3,484$1,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,536.24 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 52c | 2,995$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,557.48 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 46c | 2,782$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 51c | 1,653$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.02 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 69c | 1,598$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.05 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 1,591$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.48 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 38c | 1,169$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.78 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 31c | 1,014$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.95 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 24c | 998.94$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.61 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 49c | 835.08$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.19 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Over | 48c | 686.87$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.21 | 168 | 48.2%81 W · 87 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 79c | 591.34$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.14 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 44c | 463.32$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.93 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 449.7$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.07 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 19c | 363.16$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.16 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 355.83$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.9 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 34c | 340$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 35c | 308.47$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.22 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 33c | 306.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…cadebacked Over | 56c | 299.98$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 68c | 292.48$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 281$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.12 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 52c | 278$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.24 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 23c | 271.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…efddbacked Under | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 48c | 241.35$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.04 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 49c | 228$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.36 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 50c | 220.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 69c | 194.19$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.93 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 50c | 187.3$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.65 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c2…dc0bbacked Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…4883backed Over | 70c | 146.64$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 48c | 138$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 52c | 132.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 47c | 132.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Over | 68c | 107.83$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Over | 48c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Over | 47c | 95.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 35c | 94.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 13c | 89.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 33c | 87.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 58c | 84.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 53c | 81.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 30c | 74.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 52c | 70.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 44c | 70.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…1881backed Under | 19c | 66.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Under | 49c | 59.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 68c | 55.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 31c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…72bcbacked Over | 72c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 242 | 52.9%128 W · 114 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 38c | 49.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 46c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 65c | 48.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd928…705fbacked Over | 72c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…db95backed Over | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab1…638bbacked Over | 72c | 45.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked Under | 37c | 45.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 62c | 40.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 53c | 39.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 49c | 39.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 49c | 37.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ae…61b5backed Over | 66c | 33.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 50c | 32.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 48c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 51c | 30.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 44c | 27.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Over | 47c | 25.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 70c | 23.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Athletics vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.