MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe7f42889c2a27ec78b5ca4d66050aea2e06dd2571d74cab454b141e97b4ce73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 21c | 1,774$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.01 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 80c | 1,155$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.03 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Under | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 21c | 617$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.07 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 4c | 519$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.92 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Over | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 41c | 508.47$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.47 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked Under | 67c | 456.96$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.16 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 438.87$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.41 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf148…0b4fbacked Over | 51c | 344.1$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.93 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 221.69$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.58 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 40c | 196$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 73c | 163.67$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.39 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…038ebacked Under | 13c | 158.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 60c | 138.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 39c | 133.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.62 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 33c | 115.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 28c | 105.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.86 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…cadebacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Over | 66c | 96.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 40c | 95.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 31c | 68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 29c | 64.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Under | 72c | 55.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 69c | 47.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 78c | 44.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked Over | 49c | 29.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 67c | 20.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 60c | 20.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 68c | 17.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49c…50c7backed Under | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 78c | 15.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Athletics vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.